What it is and where it came from
A relative ranking tool, not an automatic decision
Intercom developed RICE to compare product ideas using four explicit factors: Reach, Impact, Confidence, and Effort. Reach is counted per period, Impact uses a defined multiplier, Confidence is a percentage, and Effort is measured in person-months.
Source: Intercom: RICE, simple prioritization for product managersHow the score is calculated
One formula, two unit systems
(Reach × Impact × Confidence) ÷ Effort
There is one RICE formula. What varies between teams is the units: Intercom counts reach per period, applies an Impact multiplier, expresses Confidence as a percentage, and measures Effort in person-months. Hypotize keeps the formula and asks the team to rate all four factors from 1 to 10 instead, because a shared rubric is faster to calibrate than per-idea reach counts.
What the team rates
What each letter must make explicit
Reach
How many people or events the initiative will affect in a defined period.
Keep it grounded: State the unit and period, such as customers per quarter.
Impact
Expected effect per person reached.
Keep it grounded: Intercom uses defined multipliers; Hypotize uses a relative 1–10 score.
Confidence
How strongly the estimates are supported.
Keep it grounded: Intercom expresses this as a percentage; Hypotize uses 1–10.
Effort
Total work required across the people involved.
Keep it grounded: Intercom uses person-months; Hypotize uses a relative 1–10 effort score.
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Try it on a real backlog item
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Intercom source units
People or events per period
Intercom multiplier, usually 0.25–3
Percentage, 0–100
Person-months
Intercom score
(Reach × Impact × Confidence) ÷ Effort
Before you compare scores: Reach counts and person-months have no universal 1–10 conversion, so an Intercom-style score and a 1–10 score are not interchangeable. Rank a backlog with one set of units, not both.
Worked example
The same idea in both unit systems
Decision rules
When to use RICE, and when not to
Use it when
- Reach differs materially across initiatives.
- You can estimate effort in a consistent unit.
- The team needs to expose confidence and scale assumptions.
Do not let it decide when
- Reach cannot be measured in a consistent period.
- Small score differences would create false precision.
- Dependencies, obligations, or strategic sequencing determine priority.
Common input failures
- Large reach estimates can dominate weak evidence.
- Confidence percentages look precise even when they are judgment calls.
- Effort estimates omit coordination or future maintenance.
In Hypotize
How Hypotize ranks this experiment
Hypotize runs (Reach × Impact × Confidence) ÷ Effort on the team's 1–10 ratings, producing scores from 0.1 to 1,000, and keeps the score with the experiment record. Teams with RICE scores saved before 28 August 2026: re-vote older items before comparing them with new ones.
A score ranks the backlog. It does not run the test. In Hypotize the score is attached to a record with enforced rules: the experiment cannot skip a stage, and nobody, teammate or AI agent, can mark it done without a measured result and a written learning. A ranked list tells you what to try first. A system makes sure you find out what happened.
Choose the right framework
Pick it by the question, not the math
ICE and PIE produce the same kind of number: an average of three 1–10 ratings. They differ in the questions they make the team answer. RICE is the one that changes the ranking, because reach and effort enter the formula.
ICE
- What you rate
- Impact, Confidence, Ease, each 1 to 10
- The score
- Average, stays on a 1–10 scale
- Choose it when
- Ranking many growth ideas quickly on one shared rubric.
PIE
- What you rate
- Potential, Importance, Ease, each 1 to 10
- The score
- Average, same arithmetic as ICE
- Choose it when
- Ranking pages and funnel steps for conversion work. The math matches ICE; only the questions change, which is why PIE does not need its own calculator.
RICE
- What you rate
- Reach, Impact, Confidence, Effort
- The score
- (R × I × C) ÷ E, effort divides the score
- Choose it when
- When audience size and effort differ enough between ideas that they must change the ranking.
Keep the context
Score the idea here. Then put it somewhere it cannot die.
Reviewed 29 August 2026. Source links identify the documented method; product behavior is derived from the current Hypotize framework configuration and calculator implementation.